Pre-dawn Monday replace: Changeover to snow advancing eastward across Southwest Virginia; thundersnow said - Roanoke times

update four:30 AM, 1/3/2022: experiences of snow and sleet, on occasion accompanied by means of thunder and lightning, are carrying on with to advance eastward over Southwest Virginia as far east because the I-77 corridor. Between now and about 6 a.m., extra snow and sleet are more likely to be suggested throughout the new River Valley and better elevations alongside the Blue Ridge, and between 6 and seven a.m., into the Roanoke Valley. Low-force is deepening almost due south of us in western South Carolina -- when that low center passes our longitude relocating east-northeast, dynamic cooling will rapidly take cling. The changeover will stream without delay as soon as it gets going -- temperatures can also still be several levels above freezing when the primary ice pellets or snowflakes fall at your area, but the temperature will fall to close freezing hastily quickly after as cold layers hastily descend and advance. one of the most rain is somewhat heavy currently in the Roanoke and New River valleys. Heavy rain may additionally flip to heavy snow very impulsively when the changeover reaches your place and elevation. frequent three-6 inch accumulation, with some in the community lesser or improved amounts, is expected to ensue earlier than snow tapers and ends close late morning or noon. conclusion replace

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update 10:30 PM, 1/2: Snow is spreading rapidly from northern Alabama and Mississippi across important and japanese Tennessee on this Sunday night. this is the mass of precipitation that will at last unfold over southwest Virginia, in keeping with an upper-stage low. a cold entrance passed Roanoke early this evening, turning winds to the northwest, however to date, as anticipated, temperatures have handiest slowly losing into the reduce to mid 50s. it'll take the whole dynamics of the intensifying storm gadget over the Carolinas later to drag the bloodless air down toward dawn on Monday, with snow anticipated from then until late morning. self assurance is excessive in snow falling with this setup. self assurance remains shaky in accumulations, due to the fact the skills for heavy bands that may pile up snow instantly, perhaps even beyond forecasts in some or many areas, or the absence of heavy snow in some areas combined with warm ground preserving them spotty and slushy. 3-6 inc hes is still the solid median floor for snow fall in plenty of the Roanoke and New River valleys, supported by way of lots model data and the history of equivalent storm methods, however do not be stunned by way of a little less or a bit greater, and it might probably measure rather in another way in the grassy a part of your yard vs. your driveway. In any event, it should be hours earlier than snow starts to fall in our yard. don't wait up for it if you're so inclined, get some sleep. it is my plan. we will see where we are with this setup about 5 a.m. conclusion update

With Roanoke's temperature sitting at sixty two degrees as darkness falls on this second day of 2022, snow might also seem to be like the farthest issue that may well be feasible, however fairly possible it is simply about 12 hours away from starting and could come down in some heavy bursts as daytime dawns on Monday.

A iciness storm warning goes into impact at 3 a.m. and continues to be active unless noon Monday. all over that time, rain that overspreads the Southwest Virginia late tonight is anticipated to trade to snow, from west to east, from better elevations to lower ones, as bloodless air is drawn all of a sudden into a low-power device tightening as it passes simply south of Virginia, energized with the aid of a powerful upper-degree low.

This rain-to-snow changeover will not be gradual, however will crash at once throughout the region. it's going to attain Blacksburg by 5 a.m., Roanoke by 6 a.m., and Lynchburg via 7 a.m., provide or take an hour. That pointed out, temperatures will not drop hastily at first. it could still be north of fifty degrees at nighttime at Roanoke, but once the dynamics of the storm gadget kick in, temperatures will drop in massive chunks towards the 30s -- 10-degree or more drops in an hour are not unprecedented in identical atmospheric setups. Snow will start attaining the floor with temperatures above freezing, then drop to near or slightly beneath the freezing mark by dawn.

expect snow lasting except about eleven a.m., the heaviest between about 7 and 10 a.m, might be an inch or two an hour at times. Accumulations of 3 to six inches seem probably over a large area, although a couple of spots might are available in a bit decrease and some may additionally go over 6. Accumulations may be variable by elevation and prices in banding, plus will range fairly a bit even at a single region from grassy areas and expose objects that cool instantly to open ground and pavement that hang warmth from weeks of above standard temperatures tons longer. The heaviest bands will seemingly overwhelm the melt fee and result in slushy accumulation even on city streets for at the least a little while.

Forecast models seem to be a tad later each with the rain-to-snow changeover and the continuation of snow into late morning. considering that the length and intensity are in regards to the same, that does not do tons to trade accumulation expectations, it just potential extra of the snow will fall in sunlight hours where which you can see it.

Snow falling and accumulating the day after highs in the 60s or even 70s isn't unparalleled in our vicinity, but it is extra often a late February to April occurrence, not what occurs for the first snowstorm of the season in early January.

as soon as the snow strikes on, it might probably not take lengthy for the sun to pop up, and combine with the latent warmth in surfaces to straight away soften off any accumulation on paved surfaces. Temperatures, despite the fact, will battle to make 40 on Monday.

relatively seasonable temperatures with 40s to lessen 50s highs and 20s to decrease 30s lows -- maybe some teens on Tuesday morning -- seem to set in for the week earlier than a different bloodless entrance on Friday, which may also give yet another flirtation with snow. Tis the season, in spite of the fact that it's not getting bloodless and staying cold.

Contact Kevin Myatt at kevin.myatt@roanoke.com. follow him on Twitter @kevinmyattwx.

 

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