POLITICO Playbook: Is the Georgia runoff a finished deal? - POLITICO - POLITICO

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Sen. Raphael Warnock speaks all through a news convention on Nov. 10 in Atlanta. | Brynn Anderson/AP picture

driving THE DAY

BREAKING in a single day — "Police: 6 people, assailant dead in Walmart shooting," per the AP in Chesapeake, Va.

closing DANCE — To paraphrase RAY CHARLES: Georgia, Georgia … the complete midterms via.

As we all pack up and take a brief smash for Thanksgiving, the Peach State is still abuzz with endeavor as voters put together to settle the last Senate race of this cycle.

On Tuesday, a new poll via the AARP — the first important public survey when you consider that the November popular election — showed the race continues to be interior the margin of error, with incumbent Democratic Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK pulling in fifty one% to Republican HERSCHEL WALKER's 47%.

One key facts factor: "Warnock has a commanding lead of fifty four% to 39% over Walker among unbiased voters — a vital bloc that once reliably voted for Republicans in Georgia."

Runoffs are all the time the junkiest of junk meals for political obsessives because they're the best race going on — and in this one, that dynamic has shifted into overdrive.

There's huge cash:based on AdImpact, a firm that tracks media spending, Democrats have spent more than $20 million in radio and television advertisements simply on the runoff, whereas Republicans have spent round $14 million.

There are big surrogates:Former President BARACK OBAMA is stumping for Warnock on Dec. 1. And while there's no notice on whether President JOE BIDEN can be headed there, Biden aides inform us the White house let the crusade recognize they're willing to do some thing they should hold the seat blue — together with dwell out of it, if need be. Their most effective focal point is the win.

And there's a large query hanging over the race: Is the cake already baked in Georgia?

Three factors it looks like a accomplished deal … 

1. Walker underperformed in the general election. each Democratic and Republican strategists we spoke with mentioned that one of the most largest structural hurdles for the GOP in the runoff is the roughly 200,000 voters (in particular within the northern suburbs of Atlanta) who voted for Republican Gov. BRIAN KEMP however no longer Walker.

It's now not a jump to imagine that at the least a few of Kemp's supporters held their nose and cast ballots for Walker past this month, and it seems not likely these voters will prove to back Walker devoid of Kemp or yet another Republican acting on the ballot.

2. Democrats have already gained control of the Senate. one of the crucial optimum arguments Republicans had going for them heading into November's Election Day was that any vote for Warnock without difficulty gave Democrats an opportunity to hold manage of an upper chamber that become otherwise up for grabs.

That argument is long past: Dems will handle the bulk within the Senate despite which celebration wins within the runoff, and that's no longer first rate information for Walker. Given the very actual considerations with voter drop-off that we highlighted above, one of the vital strongest pitches he had became that a vote for him became a vote in opposition t Democratic handle of the Senate; it became how some Republican voters rationalized retaining their noses to guide him.

A source on the NRSC pushed lower back on this concept closing evening, warning towards extrapolating anything from the prevalent election: "Runoffs are only a crapshoot. or not it's a very brand new three and a half week election, and that's how you should deal with it," the person mentioned.

three. Warnock has the muscle reminiscence. Warnock has run for this exact same seat 4 instances in two years. His potential to rally the troops a different time is less complicated than it will be for many other candidates. Walker's crusade infrastructure isn't as mighty, and his ground video game lagged all through the autumn. His crusade is additionally now caught within the now-open crossfire between Senate Minority leader MITCH McCONNELL and NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT.

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Three causes it isn't a carried out deal … 

1. It's still Georgia, folks. It's handiest been two years since Georgia shocked the realm by using electing two Democrats to the Senate. One election cycle doesn't a blue state make.

As one Democratic aide engaged on the runoff told us, this crusade is "going on in an atmosphere where the headwinds that existed for Democrats nevertheless exist. The frustrations that existed in the universal election with the celebration in vigor nevertheless exist. The considerations about the economic climate nevertheless exist." though they were additionally short to element out that Dems have beaten those odds already this month.

2. Republicans nonetheless have some playing cards to play. Runoffs are base elections, and the GOP is pulling out all of the stops to turn out the base. reveal A: Kemp.

In details shared exclusively with Playbook, the newly reelected governor will celebrity in a brand new, direct-to-camera tv ad that starts airing on Thanksgiving Day, through which he says that Walker may be a "vote for Georgia, no longer be one other rubber stamp for JOE BIDEN. That's why I'm backing Herschel, and i hope you'll be part of me in balloting for him, too." (also value noting: Kemp has loaned his voter turnout operation to the Senate management Fund, an excellent PAC aligned with McConnell.)

three.Runoffs are unpredictable. not many people predicted Democrats would win two Senate runoffs in Georgia in 2020. however sprinkle in DONALD TRUMP, a Trump-centric Republican message right through the 2020 runoffs, and two very pushed Democratic Senate candidates, and the Senate flips blue.

This time, of direction, Trump is not any longer in workplace. but he has re-entered the political scene by using saying an extra presidential crusade. And even with a shortened runoff cycle, there's an entire heap of drama that could pop up and assist hold voters domestic or ship them out to vote.

respectable Wednesday morning. Thanks for analyzing Playbook. What's your favourite Thanksgiving facet dish? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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NO BUMP FOR TRUMP — because saying his candidacy for president closing Tuesday, Trump saw no polling bump in support — indeed, there became a mild dip in his assist amongst Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. That's the topline takeaway from this week's POLITICO/Morning talk to poll, the primary carried out due to the fact Trump officially announced his 2024 crusade. Full outcomes … Crosstabs

  • Forty-5 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they'd vote for him if the fundamental were held these days.
  • That's down by using 2 aspects on the grounds that remaining week, in a poll taken earlier than Trump's announcement.
  • should Trump run for president?

  • among Republicans: Sixty p.c consider that he should (down 1 aspect because final week), and 37% say he should now not (up 1 point).
  • among all voters: Sixty-three % of voters feel he should still not run for president (down 2 facets from remaining week).
  • WHAT'S IN a name? — "WHO to rename monkeypox as 'MPOX,'" by using Adam Cancryn

    STAT OF THE DAY — Rep. KAREN BASS' victory in the los angeles mayoral election skill that subsequent yr, Black individuals will lead all 4 of the nation's largest cities for the first time, Brakkton Booker reviews in the infrequent story to include the notice "tetrafecta."

    decent information — "A yr After the Omicron Surge, officials See a decreased Covid danger This iciness," by NYT's Sharon LaFraniere and Benjamin Mueller

    BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY — The president has nothing on his public agenda.

    VP KAMALA HARRIS' WEDNESDAY — The VP has nothing on her public agenda.

    THE house and THE SENATE are out.

    photograph OF THE DAY

    Air force One, with President Joe Biden and first girl Jill Biden aboard, departs Andrews Air drive Base on Tuesday, Nov. 22. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP photo



    THE red WAVE THAT became — The AP has known as a California condominium race for Republican KEVIN KILEY, who beat KERMIT JONES with virtually fifty three% in the northeastern, generally rural a part of the state. The residence GOP majority now stands at 220. Kiley first rose to consideration as a state lawmaker who became a vociferous critic of Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM, per the AP.

    THE purple WAVE THAT WASN'T — Vox's Zack Beauchamp has an interesting examination of the brand new correct's response to the midterm outcomes, which has cleaved the online Trumpist intellectuals alongside several fronts. The huge questions he identifies as issues of dialogue: whether the GOP should still play down controversial cultural considerations (a la the "popularism" on the left), even if Trump or Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS is the appropriate ordinary-bearer, and whether democracy is the appropriate equipment.


    chuffed vacations — Congress is once again veering toward a government funding cut-off date, this time on Dec. 16, with out a deal in sight, Caitlin Emma previews this morning. That skill we could be staring down a different Christmas-time shutdown showdown, and a stopgap invoice to evade disaster. although appropriators are trying to attain a deal on the appropriate lines to birth, time is operating brief. "The clutter incorporates severe stakes for a multitude of executive classes, no longer to mention the future of congressional spending debates. Lawmakers worry that any funding invoice they can agree on earlier than 2023 may be the last one Congress passes for at least the subsequent two years."

    Rep. TOM COLE (R-Okla.) on whether he's making break plans: "Nope. Washington is pleasing when it snows."

    IMPEACHMENT WILL maintain US collectively — As residence Republican leader KEVIN McCARTHY scrambles to stave off a much-right rebellion towards his speaker bid, he declared Tuesday that DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS may still resign — or residence Republicans will appear carefully at impeaching him next 12 months. "He can not and have to now not remain in that place," McCarthy noted, adding that he had the backing of incoming Judiciary and Oversight chairs JIM JORDAN (Ohio) and JAMES COMER (Ky.) to investigate the border condition. extra from Fox information

    DHS answered that Mayorkas would not resign, and that individuals of Congress should work on immigration reform in its place of blaming him, per WaPo.

    LAME DUCK QUACKING? — Supporters of hashish banking legislation are moving with renewed urgency to pass a bill before the GOP takes over the house subsequent year, Natalie Fertig stories. "the important thing to passage is twofold. They must find a pairing of monetary services and crook justice reform-established hashish law that innovative Democrats and conservative Republicans can all accept. after which they must receive signoff from the leaders of the Senate Banking Committee, residence financial services Committee, and the four corners of party management."

    THE WHITE condo

    GERONTOCRACY WATCH — "Biden's era is ceding the stage as he plots his subsequent act," by means of Jonathan Lemire: "When NANCY PELOSI stepped down, she had a successor in intellect. The box that follows President Biden is way much less definite"

    POTUS ON THE road — Biden will head to the Bay metropolis, Mich., area Tuesday to discuss with a brand new semiconductor manufacturing facility and tout his administration's investments, per the Detroit Free Press.

    maintaining THE FREEZER DOOR SHUT — "Biden extends student loan compensation freeze as forgiveness software is tied up in courts," by CNN's Arlette Saenz and Katie Lobosco

    2024 WATCH

    THE next battle FOR THE condo — not each race has even been referred to as yet, but Democrats are already drawing up plans for successful back the condo majority in 2024, Axios' Andrew Solender stories. A condominium Majority PAC memo fingers 19 districts as initial objectives, most of them Biden-received and a lot of in blue states like new york and California. "The listing indicators that a key part of residence Democrats' method in 2024 should be to harness the Democratic presidential ticket's coattails — a luxury the birthday celebration didn't have within the 2022 midterms." The memo

    THE subsequent combat FOR THE SENATE — Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) already has one trendy GOP challenger, and he can also get a 2d: West Virginia Gov. JIM JUSTICE spoke of he's weighing a run, per WTOV-tv.

    PENCE LAYS THE GROUNDWORK — Former VP MIKE PENCE has introduced ALI KJERGAARD as comms director for his nonprofit, Advancing American Freedom, and is bringing on further comms and fundraising staffers forward of a possible 2024 run, Alex Isenstadt experiences. Kjergaard most currently has worked for Sen. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.). within the new 12 months, Pence is expected to go back and forth to first-in-the-nation New Hampshire.

    DeSANTIS ALLIES LAY THE GROUNDWORK — Florida's Republican state leaders referred to Tuesday they had been amenable to changing state legislations in order that DeSantis can maintain his post while operating for president, Gary Fineout experiences from Tallahassee.

    TRUMP cards

    that you would be able to'T handle THE certainty SOCIAL — Shareholders voted Tuesday to provide Trump Media & know-how community and Digital World Acquisition Corp. more respiration room to finalize their merger, pushing the deadline to subsequent September. however the reality Social associate company could still face a large hurdle at the SEC, Declan Harty stories. Any stream to block the deal from the regulatory agency, which is looking into even if the SPAC's public disclosures sufficed, "would mark an enormous hit for what became purported to be the beginning of a new period for Trump's company empire … it might additionally deliver fodder for opponents to assault Trump … whereas establishing the SEC as a brand new foe for the former president and his allies."

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    compelled TO TESTIFY — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) appeared for more than two hours Tuesday before a Fulton County, Ga., special grand jury investigating the hassle to overturn the 2020 election, after dropping a protracted legal fight not to testify, per The Atlanta Journal-constitution. His office referred to he answered every query and become treated smartly. Former Trump White house lawyer ERIC HERSCHMANN changed into also slated to testify Tuesday, although there wasn't instant confirmation that it took place.

    JUDICIARY square

    SCOTUS CLEARS THE direction — The Supreme court grew to become away Trump's bid to prevent residence Democrats from eventually getting access to his tax returns, denying his appeal Tuesday without any stated dissents. That seems to depart the previous president with none further alternate options to take care of his returns. more from ABC

    — meanwhile, longtime Trump accountant DONALD BENDER from Mazars u . s . mentioned in court on Tuesday that Trump's tax returns reported colossal losses every year from 2009 to 2018, per the AP. Bender's testimony on the long island tax fraud trial towards the Trump company included the revelation that Trump mentioned dropping $seven-hundred million in 2009 and $200 million the next 12 months.

    THE INVESTIGATIONS — "Trump rebuffed by way of decide in manhattan fraud lawsuit, trial date set," with the aid of Reuters' Karen Freifeld and Jonathan Stempel

    THE MAR-A-LAGO facts — Three federal appeals court docket judges in Atlanta, together with two appointed by means of Trump, "sounded extremely skeptical" of the appointment of a distinct grasp to supervise DOJ's evaluation of the files seized from Mar-a-Lago, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney record. The panel "appeared inclined to conclude that U.S. District courtroom choose AILEEN CANNON erred" in her Trump-favorable rulings, indicating that the accommodations have been exceptional. Trump's legal group argued it didn't desire particular medicine.

    — meanwhile, a submitting Tuesday from Trump's prison crew asked Cannon to drive the DOJ to share the unredacted version of its search affidavit for Mar-a-Lago. more from ABC

    conflict IN UKRAINE

    DEAL OR NO DEAL — "Western Allies aim to Agree on Russian Oil cost Cap Wednesday," WSJ's Laurence Norman and Andrew Duehren scooped

    the united states AND the world

    ROCKET lady — KIM YO JONG, sister of North Korean dictator KIM JONG UN, warned the U.S. that its actions to condemn Pyongyang's nuclear testing on the U.N. will lead to "a greater deadly protection disaster" for the U.S. more from the AP

    THE 12th MAN — on the World Cup, Secretary of State and soccer fan ANTONY BLINKEN referred to he's enjoying cheering on the USMNT — and urging Qatar to enrich its human rights list, WaPo's John Hudson reports from Doha. The shuttle also includes participants of Congress like Reps. DARRELL ISSA (R-Calif) and ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.). And even though Blinken made some criticisms of Qatar, he changed into additionally bolstering an important partner: "Qatar's steadfast help for U.S. pursuits in the Biden era stands in stark contrast with members of the family with other center East allies."

    cease ME in case you'VE HEARD THIS ONE earlier than — "Bolsonaro challenges Brazil election he misplaced to Lula," Reuters


    HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE — The AP fired JAMES LaPORTA after he wrongly attributed a missile strike in Poland to Russia ultimate week, triggering international alarm. but Semafor's Max Tani got the AP's Slack messages, which display a extra complex story of miscommunication: LaPorta handed along the information to colleagues, citing a single source, and then observed the choice about whether to publish become "above my pay grade" whereas he changed into at a doctor's appointment. Editors thought he become asserting newsroom VP RON NIXON had authorised the sourcing, however Nixon had authorised the supply simplest in the past. Tani calls it "a systemic editorial failure, now not one reporter's blunder," but the AP tells him they don't hearth staffers for just one incident.

    another TRUMP/MEDIA LAWSUIT — CNN requested a federal judge in Florida to dismiss Trump's defamation declare against the community. greater from Bloomberg

    meanwhile, within the BRIEFING ROOM — "White apartment Spox Scolds 'Disrespectful' newshounds for Interrupting Fauci's ultimate Presser," The daily Beast

    — "journalists are seething over being shut out of Naomi Biden's marriage ceremony, which drew concept from Time magazine photographs of previous White condo nuptials," Insider

    VALLEY talk

    THE can charge OF CONTROVERSY — amongst Twitter's 100 largest advertisers, multiple-third haven't put up an ad over the past fortnight as ELON MUSK's reign brings chaos, WaPo's Naomi Nix and Jeremy Merrill locate. For an organization that took in almost 90% of its profits from advertisements final 12 months, it may well't manage to pay for many extra defections.

    simply POSTED —"Elon Musk's Twitter Takeover Triggers Partisan clash on executive's function," via WSJ's John McKinnon

    enterprise BURST — "internal Sam Bankman-Fried's Quest to Win pals and affect people," by means of NYT's Ken Vogel, Emily Flitter and David Yaffe-Bellany


    Mark Warner vs. Sherrod Brown: Who had a more robust mustache as a younger man?

    Mike Pence gave ABC's "World news Tonight" its largest audience in eight months.

    Ted Cruz and Mike Lee had some enjoyable withJFK assassination conspiracy theories.

    Andrew Yang and Cruz may play basketball together.

    Chuck Grassley got into the holiday spirit with a Thanksgiving tradition: bringing out his trusty vacuum Beth (who may additionally not have plenty longer).

    The Bidens sent out invites for the White residence Hanukkah reception Dec. 19.

    FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The White condominium is inserting out what it calls a Thanksgiving "menu of accomplishments" that Biden fans can use to talk up the president around the holiday desk — proving so you might name the rest a "menu" if you put it on a festive heritage. The White condominium says they'll ship it to the cupboard and the Hill as neatly. read it right here

    IN MEMORIAM — "John Y. Brown Jr., dashing KFC millionaire who grew to be Kentucky governor, dies," via the Louisville Courier Journal's Andrew Wolfson: "Brown's 1979 campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor destroyed the proposal that candidates had to make investments years of painstaking preparation earlier than in the hunt for the office. He established that a short thrust, developed on up to date crusade thoughts, could weigh down organizational politics."

    — "Cecilia Marshall, spouse of Supreme court docket Justice Thurgood Marshall, dies at ninety four," by CNN's Joan Biskupic: "Like her husband, Marshall had labored for the NAACP within the Nineteen Forties and '50s. … Marshall, general for her warmness, exuberance, and enduring hobby in the court, persevered to attend oral arguments and extracurricular courtroom festivities."

    DOT ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Maggie Murphy is now White house liaison on the DOT. She most lately changed into director of scheduling and advance at the schooling branch.

    TRANSITION — Lynne Patton is now senior adviser and director of coalitions for Donald Trump's 2024 campaign. She most recently become senior adviser to Trump and director of coalitions at save the us PAC.

    MEDIA circulation — bill Hinkle is now coordinating reserving producer for NBC news, the place he manages the booking group for NBC information NOW. He most recently changed into a senior editorial producer for CNN.

    WELCOME TO the world — can also (Davis) Mailman, senior fellow at the independent ladies's discussion board, deputy solicitor widespread of Ohio and a Trump White condo alum, and David Mailman, VP of strategic partnerships and transformation at TravelCenters of the us, welcomed Hadley may Mailman on Friday. Pic … an extra pic

    —Mike Flynn, VP and information, government affairs at ITI, and Jen Flynn welcomed Callum Thomas Flynn on Nov. 14. He joins big sister Samantha. Pic … an additional pic

    happy BIRTHDAY: Senate Majority chief Chuck Schumer … Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Bobby Rush (D-sick.) and Sean Casten (D-ill.) … Rep.-elect Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) (47) … DOJ's Sheria Clarke … NYT's Carolyn Ryan … former Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) … Amy Schatz of Glen Echo community … Geoff Mackler … RNC's Rick Gorka … Matt Dennis … Katie Wall of Virgin Orbit … BBC's Suzanne Kianpour … AFP's invoice Riggs … Jeremy Slevin of Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) office … Colby Nelson … Richard Hunt of the HuntGroupDC … POLITICO's Phelim Kine, Ally Moore and Ryan Niblock … Robin Roberts … Google's Brittany Griffin … Mary Rutherford Jennings … Liz Victorin … Elizabeth Taylor of Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey's office … Danny Cevallos … Sheara Braun … former Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle … Alan Rosenberg of RG community … Emma Campbell … Jared Godes of Equality California … Geoff Morrell … Charlie Goodyear … Adam Belmar

    send Playbookers counsel to [email protected] or textual content us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't ensue without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.

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