2023 NFL divisional playoff picks: Giants shock Eagles, Cowboys upset 49ers, Bengals stun bills - CBS activities

i'd want to birth things off nowadays by using apologizing to the NFL. once they determined to alternate the name of "Wild Card Weekend" to "tremendous Wild Card Weekend," i thought it become going to be the largest advertising failure due to the fact that Crystal Clear Pepsi, however i was wrong, since the football we obtained over the weekend became super Wild. 

That being observed, if any individual from Pepsi is studying, can you carry again the crystal clear stuff, because I definitely liked it. One component I don't like although is making an attempt to select video games within the divisional round. the key to picking divisional games is to not overthink it, which may well be complicated for me as a result of I overthink every little thing. I imply, I once spent 4 days considering over a chess circulation and i wasn't even taking part in any person.

The intent you do not need to overthink things within the divisional circular is because the home crew usually dominates. over the last 10 years, domestic groups have gone 29-11, which in reality potential we're getting a standard of roughly one upset per year, which potential I may still probably decide on as a minimum one upset this week. 

then again, domestic teams went 1-3 remaining year, so possibly I deserve to get wild and prefer all upsets. Crap. I actually just instructed myself no longer to overthink my picks this week and right here we are, one paragraph later, and that i'm already overthinking them. 

So will I really decide upon any upsets this week? Let's get to the picks and discover. 

definitely, before we get to the picks, here's a quick reminder for you to check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL knowledgeable with the aid of clicking right here. if you click on over, you're going to note that I went 5-1, which i'd brag about, however I can not, as a result of two of our guys went 6-0. 

if you've ever puzzled what it might be want to hang around with me and watch football, then make sure you head to our decide on Six YouTube web page. i am going reside on YouTube with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson after each playoff game and it's a great place to make fun me for lacking picks.  

okay, i'm going to stop stalling so one can get to the picks. 

Divisional circular picks No. 4 Jacksonville (10-8) at No. 1 Kansas metropolis (14-three)

Saturday, four:30 p.m. ET (NBC) 

Featured game | Kansas city Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

I believe I've pointed out this before, however i go to assert it once again, there are three guarantees in existence: loss of life, taxes and Andy Reid successful off the bye. due to the fact that i'm no longer lifeless and i haven't paid taxes considering 2001, I have no idea a whole lot about these first two things, however I do know sufficient to on no account select against Reid when his group is coming off a bye. 

In his 24-12 months teaching profession, Reid is 28-5 coming off a bye, together with playoff video games. he's been so unbeatable that Ryan Wilson, Will Brinson and that i once wrote a music about it. although, as you will notice under, we failed to put an awful lot effort into singing it or writing it, and or not it's now not very catchy. 

expectantly, Rihanna will sing our song on the super Bowl halftime demonstrate in order that the united states will ultimately be equipped thoroughly appreciate our musical genius. 

As for Reid's success off the bye, in case you most effective encompass the games where Reid has had Patrick Mahomes, then he is definitely even superior. Mahomes has a profession record of 9-1 off the bye and the Chiefs have averaged 30.1 aspects in these 10 video games. 

Of route, if there is one adult who can beat Andy Reid coming off a bye, it could simply be Doug Pederson and that's because he is aware of Reid more desirable than any one. The Jaguars coach spent 10 years with Reid, including three as a participant in eco-friendly Bay (1997-99) and 7 as an assistant teach, with 4 of these coming in Philadelphia (2009-12) and three in Kansas metropolis (2013-15). in short, Pederson isn't going to be intimidated going into Kansas city and he's not going be intimidated through the undeniable fact that individuals are writing songs about Andy Reid.

The Jaguars have satisfactory firepower to hold this close provided that Trevor Lawerence doesn't do anything else crazy, you comprehend, like throw 4 interceptions within the first half. youngsters I believe the Jags might be in a position to cling with the Chiefs, I can not opt for the upset here. My main difficulty with the Jags is that their largest weak spot on defense is stopping tight ends and that's now not a weak point you are looking to have if you happen to're facing Kansas city's offense. 

The Jaguars surrendered 1,087 receiving yards to tight ends this 12 months and 13.1 yards per reception to tight ends, which were each the third-worst within the NFL. Travis Kelce could have 300 receiving yards by the point this video game is over. If the Jags go all-out making an attempt to shut down Kelce, then in order to virtually certainly open different things up for everyone else on the Chiefs' offense. 

The Jags are going to need to decide on their poison and it's going to lead to a sluggish death, which brings me again to my normal factor: The simplest things certain in life are demise and Andy Reid profitable off the bye, and taxes, I bet, but handiest in case you truly pay them. (And if any individual from the IRS is studying this, I in reality love paying taxes. or not it's actually one in every of my three favorite issues about dwelling in this nation).

THE prefer: Chiefs 31-24 over JaguarsRecord making a choice on JAX-KC video games this season: 1-0Record deciding on Jaguars games this season: eight-10Record selecting Chiefs video games this season: 16-1

No. 6 N.Y. Giants (10-7-1) at No. 1 Philadelphia (14-three)

Saturday, eight:15 p.m. ET (Fox)

Featured online game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. manhattan Giants

On paper, this game seems love it could develop into a blowout: The Eagles have the superior offense, the superior protection and a in shape Jalen Hurts is stronger than Daniel Jones. And as I spoke of earlier, i'm not going to overthink things this week and probably the most incredible aspect about this video game is that these two teams have already played twice this season with the Giants getting outscored 70-38. 

When two division opponents meet within the playoffs, I don't always pay consideration to what took place all the way through the normal season, but in this online game, or not it's variety of hard to disregard. The Eagles blew out the Giants twice this year with wins of forty eight-22 and 22-sixteen, and yes, I count number that second ranking as a blowout because it become 19-3 midway in the course of the fourth quarter.

interestingly, it's alleged to be difficult to beat a team thrice in one season, however i wanted to find that out for myself, so I decided to really do a little research (This in reality just involves me emailing our research branch, so there's no longer in fact too a whole lot work worried on my end, so don't consider sorry for me). 

Anyway, on the grounds that 1970, a total of 24 teams have long gone 2-0 against a divisional opponent in the common season and then faced them once more in the playoffs and people 24 groups have long past 15-9 within the third video game, which potential sixty two.5% of the groups have entire the three-game sweep, but that additionally ability that the 0-2 group has gained the third online game 37.5% of the time, and that i think what i am making an attempt to say right here is that I just did all that analysis for nothing, as a result of that is now not enough advice to assist me opt for this online game. 

The Eagles are a massive favorite, however i'm no longer certain if i can have confidence them at the moment due mainly to the indisputable fact that I watched them play three straight dangerous games to conclusion the season. 

  • Week 16: Eagles lose 40-34 to the Cowboys. yes, Gardner Minshew changed into starting, but he would not play protection and the protection bought gashed for 40 aspects by using the Cowboys. 
  • Week 17: Eagles lose 20-10 to the Saints. in this spot, they lost a house game to a crew that eventually accomplished the season with a dropping record. it truly is now not optimum. 
  • Week 18: Eagles beat Giants 22-sixteen. With the the No. 1 seed within the NFC on the line, the Eagles barely beat a Giants crew that was resting almost all of its starters. I repeat, the Eagles struggled in opposition t the Giants backups. i do know I listed this online game as a "blowout" a bit bit prior, but i am now retracting that commentary. As all of us know, i'm allowed one retraction per picks column.  
  • by the time this game kicks off, Jalen Hurts will have simplest performed one game during the last month and he did not look good in that online game. additionally, right through the Eagles blowout win in Week 14, the Giants have been missing three starters -- DL Leonard Williams, CB Adoree' Jackson, S Xavier McKinney -- who all may have a big effect this week. I mean, just analyze what Jackson did to Justin Jefferson throughout the wild-card circular. 

    If he pulls that off in opposition t A.J. Brown, the Eagles might be in main issue. 

    i'm not asserting the Giants are this year's group of fate, however's variety of beginning to suppose that method. The ultimate 3 times the Giants have won their opening circular playoff online game, they've ended up within the tremendous Bowl and that i'm going to assert they take one step closer on Saturday evening by using surprising the Eagles. 

    THE select: Giants 23-20 over EaglesRecord determining NYG-PHI games this season: 2-0Record determining Giants games this season: 10-7-1 checklist determining Eagles video games this season: 11-6

    No. 3 Cincinnati (13-four) at No. 2 Buffalo (14-three)

    Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (CBS)

    Featured video game | Buffalo expenses vs. Cincinnati Bengals

    there's a very good possibility we could see probably the most emotional pregames in NFL background earlier than these two teams kickoff on Sunday. This video game might be played exactly 20 days after Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest on the box in Cincinnati in what become one of the most frightening moments in NFL historical past. 

    With Hamlin out of the hospital and now back in Buffalo, it wouldn't be fantastic in any respect to see him make an look at Highmark Stadium this week for what may comfortably emerge as being the ideal video game of the divisional round. If we do not count number the six minutes of soccer that these two teams played on Jan. 2 -- and let's not -- then this will be the first meeting ever between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. 

    in case you like offensive fireworks, then this is the game for you: both groups ranked in the good eight in the NFL in aspects per game, offensive yards per online game and passing yards per game all through the average season. despite the fact the Bengals offense struggled against the Ravens in the wild-card round, i'm no longer sure i'd study too a good deal into that. Joe Burrow struggled against AFC North teams this 12 months, but he dominated everybody else he played. here's a glance at how Burrow has completed within the Bengals' 17 games, together with the playoffs: 

  • Joe Burrow vs. AFC North teams (four-3): 257.9 passing yards per video game, 13 TD, 9 INT
  • Burrow vs. Non-AFC North groups (9-1): 287.9 passing yards per game, 23 TD, three INT
  • What this potential is that teams that aren't used to enjoying Burrow have become destroyed by means of Burrow. The expenses got a small taste of that in Week 17. although the stats don't count, Burrow had a perfect QB ranking (158.3) after starting four of 4 for 52 yards and a TD. 

    Of path, it be additionally worth noting that the bills also beat up on non-divisional groups. The change is that Allen wasn't necessarily a higher QB in these games. 

  • Josh Allen vs. AFC East groups (5-2): 269.3 passing yards per game, 15 TD, 5 INT
  • Allen vs. Non-AFC East groups (9-1): 250 passing yards per video game, 23 TD, eleven INT
  • The problem with Allen is that he has been turnover computing device this yr. besides his 16 interceptions, he's also lost six fumbles, and despite the fact i'm not good at math, I do comprehend that 16 plus six equals 22, which turned into probably the most turnovers via ANY quarterback within the NFL this yr. 

    no longer most effective has Burrow had fewer turnovers, however he is also been an objectively superior within the fourth quarter this year. 

    I think what i am attempting to assert right here is that if we're only looking at the 2022 season, the quarterback I believe greater during this online game is Burrow. 

    That being noted, even though I trust Burrow more, the Bengals could still be in some trouble this week and that is the reason as a result of they just misplaced their beginning left handle (Jonah Williams). through the first sixteen weeks of the season, the Bengals had been one in all just two teams in the NFL that begun the same offensive line in each video game, however after dropping Williams, they've now misplaced three starters during the last three weeks, which may make issues dicey (They've also misplaced appropriate handle La'el Collins and appropriate safeguard Alex Cappa). Cappa and Williams are each "Week-to-Week," but it appears unlikely that they're going to play. 

    The Bengals are 0-three this 12 months when Burrow gets sacked 5 or greater instances, but 13-1 when he's sacked fewer than 5 times, which potential they simply need to be sure that the revamped offensive line is functioning smartly adequate in order that Burrow does not spend the complete video game working for his lifestyles. 

    The closing time these two groups performed each and every other in January got here on the conclusion of the 1988 season after they met in the AFC Championship, which appears kind of fitting, due to the fact that the winner of this video game should be headed to the AFC Championship. 

    Burrow has under no circumstances misplaced in the month of January (6-0) in his career, so I suppose like I have to roll with him here. 

    THE choose: Bengals 27-24 over BillsRecord choosing Bengals video games this season: 13-4 checklist settling on bills games this season: 14-three

    No. 5 Dallas (13-5) at No. 2 San Francisco (14-four)

    Sunday, 6 p.m. ET (Fox)

    Featured video game | San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys

    here is a rematch from remaining 12 months's postseason, youngsters i'm guessing that most Cowboys fanatics do not be aware that video game as a result of they've already repressed the memory to a gloomy nook of their mind. notwithstanding Cowboys lovers do not bear in mind it, Mike McCarthy really does and that's the reason as a result of each person on the information superhighway basically spent six straight months making enjoyable of McCarthy and the Cowboys for the style the game ended.

    if you want a reminder on how that game ended, here's a short refresher: 

    The Cowboys had no timeouts and no option to stop the clock, but they nonetheless known as a QB draw with 14 seconds left. people on the cyber web do not unite on an awful lot, however they really united to make enjoyable of that name. In a sense, the us's team brought the us collectively, however i am guessing that's now not how they wanted to do it. 

    The loopy issue about this online game is that there is really an opportunity that it may turn into an offensive shootout. given that Week 7, these were both highest SCORING teams within the NFL and that specially has to do with the incontrovertible fact that both groups had whatever huge happen that week: The 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey while Dak Prescott lower back from his damage. 

    youngsters this video game may turn into a shootout, it additionally may turn into a shielding struggle and that's the reason because each of those groups rank within the properly 5 for fewest facets allowed right through the 2022 season. 

    essentially the most fascinating teaching matchup during this video game truly comprises Kyle Shanahan's offense going up towards Dan Quinn's protection. I swear, any time these two guys are on the same box together, whatever thing loopy occurs. i'm certain all and sundry remembers the Falcons' epic give way in tremendous Bowl LI. In that video game, the Falcons head teach turned into Quinn while the offensive coordinator became Shanahan, so I wager we're going to eventually discover who we should blame for Atlanta's give way. 

    The 49ers have been some of the surest teams in the NFL this 12 months, however i am nonetheless no longer bound how they are going to seem in opposition t a good crew. The 49ers had the least difficult strength of time table in the NFL this yr and half their wins came in a bad division (together with the playoffs, they went 7-0 in opposition t NFC West groups and seven-four against everyone else). also, on the grounds that Brock Purdy took over the beginning job, the 49ers have not in reality been confirmed because they haven't actually confronted any respectable teams. Purdy has looked exquisite, however he confronted five groups within the usual season that complete with a mixed listing of 35-49-1. 

    closing year, the 49ers were the underdog and that i picked them to upset the Cowboys. This yr, i'm doing the opposite. simplest four rookie quarterbacks -- Shaun King, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez -- have ever made it to a convention title game and i do not feel Purdy goes to be the fifth. 

    and you comprehend what, i could even say this issues ends with a game-profitable container intention from the man (Brett Maher) who can't make an additional point. 

    THE decide on: Cowboys 34-31 over 49ersRecord determining Cowboys video games this season: 10-8Record selecting 49ers games this season: 13-5

    last Week

    foremost opt for: final week, I predicted that the Jaguars would pull off an upset win over the Chargers and wager what came about? The Jaguars pulled off an upset win over the Chargers. Now, did i know that the Chargers have been going to choke away a 27-aspect lead all through one of the largest meltdowns in NFL playoff heritage? Of route, I did.

    this is the Chargers we're speaking about and there is no group stronger than them at epic collapses, except perhaps the Falcons, however we will argue that another time. i was so sure the Chargers would locate a brand new, awesome method to lose that I could have willed it into existence. 

    I imply, just analyze what I wrote about the game last week, "This could be the craziest video game of the wild-card circular... I simply have this sinking feeling that the Chargers are going to find a way to Charger issues up... i am no longer precisely bound what will turn up, but some thing it is, we'll all feel sorry for the Chargers when it happens, and it'll simplest get extra awkward when Jaxson De Ville celebrates the miscue whereas donning a speedo."

    The simplest element I ignored on become Jaxson De Ville celebrating in a speedo, with the intention to make up for that, here's Jaxson De Ville in a speedo.  

    As this tweet notes, the Jaguars didn't start to turn around their season unless their mascot started donning a speedo. might be all mascots may still wear speedos. 

    Worst choose: I best missed one choose all through the wild-card round and that changed into because I determined to take the Buccaneers over the Cowboys for some cause. if you watched the Buccaneers play at all this season, it become fairly clear that their offense become horrible and that that they had no shot of profitable in the playoffs. however, I talked myself into believing that Tom Brady could in some way will them to a win, however i was wrong. i would say this become Brady's greatest lack of the week, but i might likely also be wrong about that on account that this additionally came about. 

    The moral of the story right here is that you'll want to not ever decide upon a team to win if their quarterback simply lost out on 1.1 million shares of anything. 

    Picks record

    Straight up in wild-card round: 5-1SU common in playoffs: 5-1Against the unfold in wild-card round: three-3ATS overall in playoffs: three-3

    last 2022 commonplace season recordStraight-up: a hundred sixty five-one hundred and five-1 towards the unfold: 129-133-9

    that you would be able to locate John Breech on fb or Twitter and if he isn't doing a kind of things, he is probably doing his taxes. 

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