the primary video game of the divisional round of the NFL playoffs pits the AFC's No. 1 seed, the Kansas metropolis Chiefs, against the No. 4 seed Jacksonville Jaguars.
With the Jags coming off a rollicking comeback win over Kansas metropolis's AFC West brethren, they most likely have an upset on their minds as they trip to the midwest. The Chiefs, in the meantime, are hoping to comfy a visit to their fifth consecutive AFC Championship online game. They've made it at the least that a long way in every year of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era, and or not it's not going they need that streak to return to an end now.
So, which of these groups will boost to the subsequent round? We're completely satisfied you asked. before we break down the matchup, right here's a look at tips on how to watch the online game.
the way to watchDate: Saturday, Jan. 21 | Time: four:30 p.m. ETLocation: GEHA field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas city, Missouri)television: NBC | movement: fuboTV (are attempting for free of charge) follow: CBS sports App Odds: Chiefs -8.5, O/U 53 (courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Jaguars have the ballor not it's extraordinarily hacky to imitate the hole of A story of Two Cities when introducing a degree, however damn if last week wasn't the worst of halves followed via the best of halves for Trevor Lawrence. ahead of halftime towards the l. a. Chargers, Lawrence became simply 10 of 24 for seventy seven yards, one touchdown, and an amazing 4 interceptions. After the spoil, he went 18 of 23 for 211 yards and three touchdowns, with zero picks.
absolutely, the previous class of half absolutely cannot turn up in opposition t Kansas city if the Jaguars want to live within the video game. The Chiefs are not the Chargers, and they'll no longer let an opponent live to tell the tale that type of efficiency. And the Jags truly might want Lawrence to play at the level he reached in that 2d half, for the complete online game, simply to sustain with Kansas city's explosive offense. That potential he'll also need to exceed the performance he put forth when these groups met again in Week 10, when he completed 29 of 40 passes, but for just 259 yards (6.5 per effort) and two touchdowns. It was a solid online game, but not basically enough to sustain with what Patrick Mahomes become doing on the other side of the ball.
If Lawrence is to get the kinds of results the Jags want from him, it's going to possible come by means of throws to the middle of the container. Kansas metropolis ranked 29th in soccer Outsiders' DVOA on these throws, whereas Lawrence went 35 of forty eight for 392 yards, 5 touchdowns, and one decide upon on passes between the hashes, in line with Tru Media. He ranked sixth in the league in anticipated aspects introduced (EPA) per dropback on those plays.
Throwing over the center possible capability working the matchups with slot man Christian Kirk (seventy six% of snaps in the slot, in response to seasoned football focus) vs. L'Jarius Sneed, and tight end Evan Engram vs. Kansas city's linebackers and safeties. On the perimeter, Zay Jones and Marvin Jones will see coverage from rookies Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and they're a bit of easier to throw on than is Sneed, but Lawrence became at his best ripping it over the core -- particularly when he become in a position to push the ball downfield whereas doing so.
Getting the ball downfield necessitates time to throw, and the Jacksonville offensive line will have its hands full with Kansas metropolis's front -- peculiarly Chris Jones. Lawrence's superpower is his means to avoid sacks, however it's more difficult to do this when the force comes up the core and directly into your lap. it is the place Jones is available in, and if the Jags can't preserve him from crashing the pocket, it could be a protracted day for their offense. Lawrence may additionally also have to work his checkdowns more frequently than he likes (Travis Etienne has hardly ever been focused in recent weeks) if Jones is dominating the online game.
The Jags might be tempted to are trying to play conservative in a matchup where they are underdogs, but they really want to do the contrary. Kansas metropolis is going to score; inserting the video game on Lawrence's correct shoulder, as opposed to counting on Etienne and the offensive line to manage the ball all game, is Jacksonville's gold standard chance of pulling off an upset.
When the Chiefs have the ballWhen these two teams performed several weeks ago, Patrick Mahomes torched the Jaguars secondary to the tune of 26 of 35 for 331 yards, with four touchdowns and one interception. He added seven rushing attempts for 39 yards while taking zero sacks. He did that despite dropping JuJu Smith-Schuster to a concussion and Andrew Wylie to an elbow damage in the first half.
It makes feel that he changed into able to mild the Jaguars up, given the areas of relative weakness for Jacksonville's defense.
The Jags ranked thirty second in football Outsiders' DVOA against throws to tight ends this season, for instance, and Mahomes achieved 6 of seven passes for eighty one yards and a touchdown to Travis Kelce, as well as 3 of three passes for 26 yards and a rating for Noah grey and Jody Fortson. No crew in the league saw its opponents throw a stronger share of its pass makes an attempt to working backs, per Tru Media, and Mahomes connected with Jerick McKinnon on 6 of 8 passes for 56 yards. simplest two groups allowed extra receiving yards to players lined up within the slot than did the Jaguars, and Mahomes went 10 of 13 for 153 yards and two scores to slot guys during the online game, despite Smith-Schuster leaving early.
neatly, right here we are a pair months later, and Kelce is still Kelce, McKinnon is even more entrenched because the lead lower back in Kansas metropolis's offense, Smith-Schuster is back within the fold, and the Jaguars still have the same relative weaknesses as a pass defense. In other phrases, this units up as an exquisite matchup for Mahomes. The places he likes to go with the ball, are the identical locations the Jaguars are likely to depart open, and now we have already considered him choose them apart with those exact sorts of throws.
betting against a repeat is having a bet on Jacksonville's defense to all of sudden have an out-of-character efficiency towards the gold standard quarterback in the league, or on stated quarterback to have an out-of-character performance towards a defense not all that neatly equipped to cope with him or his simple weapons.
Throw in the indisputable fact that the Jaguars additionally ranked 29th within the NFL in rush defense DVOA this season, and that the Chiefs possible have an competencies in the trenches, and the probability of the Chiefs offense failing during this video game starts to look relatively minuscule. it truly is very true if what we saw from McKinnon as a runner each last postseason (34 carries for 150 yards) and in the games the place he in fact obtained significant incorporates this yr (he went 8-53, eight-fifty one, and 10-52 within the simplest three games where he had eight carries or more).
Featured game | Kansas city Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 20
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