expenses vs Bengals Odds, decide upon: expert Bets Monday evening football favorite - The action network

We close Week 17 by way of making a bills vs. Bengals prefer in a thrilling Monday nighttime soccer matchup

while we've gotten dissimilar iterations of Joe Burrow vs. Patrick Mahomes and Mahomes vs. Josh Allen in view that the beginning of remaining season, we've not ever gotten to witness Burrow and Allen rectangular off — previously.

together with the postseason, the Bengals are 20-three against the spread (ATS) in their remaining 23 video games. Can Burrow and business preserve it going against one of the choicest teams within the NFL?

Let's verify the bills vs. Bengals odds and make a select.

bills vs. Bengals Matchup evaluation

Toggle the dropdowns under to hide or show how the bills and Bengals healthy up statistically:

bills vs. Bengals DVOA Breakdown

What makes the Bengals' run this season much more astounding is that they've faced a slew of true-12 DVOA defenses, with Buffalo's fourth-ranked unit representing their seventh such opponent.

There's been a moderate but considerable drop-off in the effectiveness of the Bengals offense in these spots, averaging 23.three elements per video game compared to 27.9 towards defenses ranked outdoor the correct 12. The dip has been just a little more reported when the Bengals face a good-five defense, as they put up just 17 aspects against the Cowboys (No. 2) in Week 2 and 22 elements against the Patriots (No. three) remaining week.

The expenses box the seventh-optimum pass defense through DVOA and generate pressure on the eleventh-highest rate (23.1%) despite blitzing on the tenth-lowest cost (19.four%). The skill to be beneficial devoid of blitzing is vital against the Bengals offense, as per seasoned soccer center of attention (PFF), Burrow is tied for 2d in touchdown passes (11), fourth in PFF grade (81.1), and seventh in passer rating (110.8) in opposition t the blitz amongst 39 qualified passers.

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The Bengals offensive line is their main vulnerability on offense. They simply lost right address La'El Collins for the yr as a result of a torn ACL. while he was not taking part in neatly (fifty seven.9 PFF grade, 70th of 81 qualified tackles), his substitute Hakeem Adenijii has been even worse (fifty two.eight PFF grade). take care of Alex Cappa is Cincinnati's simplest lineman who has graded out as above typical this season.

The expenses enable the fifth-lowest cost of explosive passes (10.9%), so Burrow will seemingly count on the brief game to distribute the ball to his plethora of ability-position weapons. The bills rank exact-12 in DVOA versus each place but No. 1 broad receivers, but that is deceptive as a result of they simply got suitable cornerback Tre'Davious White lower back a few weeks in the past. White has allowed only a 52.0% completion price and 6.6 yards per target due to the fact returning in Week 12.

while the Bengals have faced a couple of groups with exact defenses, the expenses are the only 1 of these squads that additionally boasts a exact-five offense. The Bengals defense is frequently well-schemed, but can also struggle to get off the box on third downs towards an elite bills offense. Buffalo ranks first on offense with a 49.7% third-down conversion fee while Cincinnati ranks 19th in third-down protection (39.eight%).

whereas at first look it seems like the Bengals had success in opposition t the same type of offense within the Chiefs in a 27-24 win, that's somewhat misleading. no longer only did the Bengals allow 8.three yards per try to Mahomes and 5.5 yards per carry to the Chiefs working video game, however they also allowed the Chiefs to move 6-11 on third down and a pair of-2 on fourth down. The Bengals benefitted from a neglected field purpose and a fumble at the worst possible time from Travis Kelce in that game.

The Bengals have been wonderful in opposition t the unfold, but I believe here's the appropriate time to fade them. while their win against the Chiefs become stunning, the change between the Chiefs and expenses is the bills pair their good-four offense with a proper-four defense while the Chiefs are outdoor the exact 20 on protection. With a short unfold like this, one further cease might make all the change.

based on our action Labs facts, groups that are eighty% or better towards the unfold have long gone just one hundred-131-3 (43%) ATS on the grounds that 2017.

note: i would most effective bet this to bills -2, and the line has moved across the board to expenses -2.5 as of 1:45 p.m. ET. I'd nonetheless guess expenses -2 as an alt line, otherwise you can wait to look if the line moves in our want.

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