NFL Wild Card Picks: skilled Bets for Dolphins vs expenses, greater - The action network

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expenses 1H group complete Over 14 (Play to 14.5)

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1 p.m. ET

The bills have started fast at domestic this season, averaging a league-excessive 19.7 elements per video game within the first half. in the meantime, the Dolphins protection has surrendered 18.6 facets per video game in the first half on the highway, which is the 2d most.

Buffalo has scored as a minimum 14 facets in six of its eight domestic games, and Miami allowed at the least 17 in seven of 9 highway games.

With Skylar Thompson behind center, it can be tricky for the Dolphins to sustain drives, and the bills are nevertheless feeding off the high-quality news surrounding Damar Hamlin's recuperation and are a superb guess to as soon as once again come out robust in front of their home crowd.

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Giants +3

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four:30 p.m. ET

not only are the Vikings six spots lessen than the Giants in normal DVOA (twenty seventh vs. twenty first), but they received outgained 445-353 by using new york and have been fortunate to escape with a 27-24 win in Week 15.

The Giants are one of the most well-coached groups within the league, a huge reason they went 6-5-1 straight up as an underdog this season. After resting starters and preparing a full two weeks for the Vikings, a rematch may still provide the Giants an aspect – just analyze how the Vikings carried out within the second meeting towards the Lions and Packers versus the first.

  • MIN 23, GB 7 in Week 1; GB forty one, MIN 17 in Week 17
  • MIN 28, DET 24 in Week three; DET 34, MIN 23 in Week 14
  • however both of the 2nd matchups were on the road for the Vikings, we're speaking about a 27.5-point swing on ordinary, which is 10 times greater than what you might are expecting from domestic-container competencies by myself.

    The Giants protection is undervalued during this spot. For the primary time all season, they will have cornerback Adoree' Jackson, protection Xavier McKinney and protecting linemen Leonard Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux healthy all of sudden.

    The Vikings' power is their offense, so even an incremental improvement from the Giants protection compared to the closing matchup is adequate to evade Minnesota from pulling off yet another fortunate win.

    Per our motion Labs information, Wild Card dogs of seven or much less are 29-18-1 (62%) ATS on the grounds that 2003.

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    4:30 p.m. ET

    Smith returned from harm to run a route on 34% of dropbacks — in comparison to 43% for T.J. Hockenson — ultimate week in a online game by which the Vikings pulled their starters. however it's unlikely Smith cuts into Hockenson's taking part in time with every little thing on the road, particularly after Hockenson caught 13 passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week sixteen.

    On ordinary, Vikings tight ends have combined for a 95% route participation expense this season. Hockenson accounted for 80%, leaving handiest 15% for every person else, meaning it would take a drastic increase in heavy personnel or reduction in Hockenson's snaps for Smith to play a major role.

    despite the taking part in time he noticed in the standard season finale, Smith still managed best 14 yards on three catches. His aDOT changed into just 2.7 in that game and is only 5.1 for the season, which could enable Smith to capture 2-3 passes during this matchup and nonetheless go beneath.

    I actually have Smith projected for 1.four catches and 12 yards. here is playable to under 12.5 yards.

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    eight:15 p.m. ET

    Mixon compiled only sixty eight scrimmage yards on sixteen touches towards the Ravens closing week and is probably going to combat again.

    On the ground, the Ravens have allowed just 684 yards on 192 includes (3.56 YPC) and held Mixon to 27 yards ultimate week. And Mixon's receiving construction might take a success if he has to stay in to pass give protection to more with the Bengals missing dissimilar starters alongside the offensive line.

    It's worth noting Mixon's utilization has been trending down with Samaje Perine enjoying smartly, and it's no guarantee to reverse in the playoffs.

    Mixon is averaging a 75% share of non-QB designed consists of and a 50% route participation fee on the season, but over the past four games, he's considered 69% of designed runs and a 44% route participation rate.

    Even after I undertaking Mixon using his season averages, he nonetheless fails to crack eighty combined speeding and receiving yards. I'd play this to 78.5.

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